The bookies figured it out – Haruki Murakami will be this year’s laureate of the Nobel Prize in Literature.  The odds in his favor are 3-1.

Why can the odd-makers tell it with a proven record of accuracy?  Not because the odd-makers read his books…

It is because the odd-makers follow the money that readers and other pundits placed on Murakami.  The collective intelligence of the bettors – the wisdom of the crowds is smarter than the smartest individual.  It likely that the individual bettors read Murakami’s books.

The bettors speak with their money!

Money represents clear thinking.

Sad to say, but the probabilities created by the flow of money is a stronger predictor than literary merit.

One more thing: who is the second probable winner? Joyce Carol Oates with lower odds of 6-1.

More on this fascinating discussion:



About Mandy Lender

Mandy Lender, MD is an author, physician, public speaker, volunteer and adventurer. He published two books and two more books are in progress. Links: www.mandylender.com www.google.com/+MandyLenderMasterAttractor www.karkinosfarm.com www.visionofhabakkuk.com
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